#6 - Practice 5: Use Scenario Analysis like Jacob Shapiro
“So, geopolitics really is more about defining possibilities and getting ready for any possibility so that if the crazy thing happens, ah, I've thought about it before. And I know what I'm going to do when that happens, rather than I'm going to perfectly be able to identify the scenario.” - Jacob Shapiro, Cognitive Investments
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This week’s episode features a future regular guest of Taylor Made Macro, Jacob Shapiro, from Cognitive Investments. Jacob is a true neutral geopolitical analyst that approaches the world and the markets with humility and back-breaking labor to arrive at his conclusions. Chase and Jacob discuss current events in global elections, the importance of finding original news sources, paying attention to news that seems strange, and implementing a ranking system for the avalanche of information one needs to get through to do this work each day. This helps you with the most important takeaway of the episode: scenario planning. Thinking about what could happen helps you prepare if it does happen.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) – Intro
(01:38) – Charity: William and Anne Monroe Shapiro Endowment
(02:16) – Mexican Elections: Shienbaum is a Scientist
(08:13) – Modi’s Age and Charisma Have Their Limits
(11:29) – South Africa’s Apartheid History Overshadows the Geopolitical Potential
(14:39) – Individual Leaders Can Have a Great Amount of Agency in the Right Moment, with the Right Circumstances
(17:54) – Milei’s Economic Changes Could be Trading Short-Term Pain for Long-Term Meaningful Change
(25:23) – Mexican, Brazilian, and Saudi Arabian ETFs Are (as of recording) Mispriced.
(27:16) – Between Two Pines
(32:43) – Scenario Imagination and Admitting You’re Wrong are too Important When Money is on the Line
(36:32) – Google Translate Your Way to More Accurate, Ground-level News, and Dissect the Piece of Info that Seems Strange
(44:04) – Spanx vs. High Nutritional Reading
(46:07) – Jacob’s Books: All the King's Men by Robert Penn Warren & Psychology of Intelligence Analysis by Richards Heuer [Jr.]
(47:14) – Notion Helps Organize Information
(51:44) – Finding the Original is the Most Important Task
(53:37) – High Level Meeting Summaries: Pay Attention to Divergence
(56:10) – Don’t Put on a Trade Unless You Can Get to Confidence
(58:40) – Geopolitical Analysis is not a Hard Science
(1:02:14) – Swim to Connect Dots
(1:03:10) – Half-Holocaust Survivors / Half D.C. Socialites – Bridging the Various Classes Perspectives for Better Political Analysis
(1:06:36) - Plugs
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This Episode's Charity:
In honor of Jacob’s parents, an endowment for First Generation American citizens has been established at Oxford College of Emory University. Please donate here.
Jacob and Chase raised $20 for charity this week!
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Referenced in the Show:
Cognitive Dissidents (Soon The Jacob Shapiro Podcast): Depreciable Line of Information
Movie: Three Days of the Condor
Jacob's Book Recommendations: All the King's Men by Robert Penn Warren & Psychology of Intelligence Analysis by Richards Heuer [Jr.]
Book 3: The Tao Jones Averages
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Guest Plugs:
Jacob’s X : https://x.com/JacobShap
Jacob’s Work : Cognitive.Investments
Podcast : Cognitive Dissidents
Jacob’s Website : jacobshapiro.com
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Pinecone Macro Research aims to provide unique, well researched analysis of the global markets using a macro framework. Find us here: www.pineconemacro.com
Follow us and the show on Twitter: @PineconeMacro & @TaylorMadeMacro
Subscribe on Substack: https://substack.com/@pineconemacroresearch
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Bulwark Capital Management: https://bulwarkcapitalmgmt.com/
Disclaimer:
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The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor
